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- PCs and their makers trying to morph to more - mobile, pads, storage, what next? More M&A - http://bit.ly/aFGWAK $DELL $GOOG $MSFT $AAPL
- Launching The Thematic Investor newsletter - take a look here http://bit.ly/bLO1H7 $KOPN $EQIX $CSCO $CL $K $PG $AAPL $NFLX $RIMM $SVVS $T
- Tune in to Chris Versace on America's Morning News....http://bit.ly/cta0IQ #economy #investing #politics
- $KOPN: Solid 2Q10 Lays the Ground for a Better 2H10 http://bit.ly/bPNFIU
- Getting ready for the July employment report http://bit.ly/aadu2D
- $IIVI Bookings for the quarter increased 120% to a record $125,985,000 compared to $57,245,000 in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year
- Big Lots 2Q revenue comparison rises http://bit.ly/cSdVvJ $BIG
- Smartphone demand drives 54% year-on-year growth in Kopin’s III-V revenue in Q2 http://bit.ly/cGKhkB $KOPN $SWKS
- Commented on: "Universal Display: Showing a Less Than Promising Future" http://soc.li/k0PiaxO $PANL
- Since when does #SmarTrend call EPS upside? showing consensus # is not the same as calling for upside http://bit.ly/9QMdoe $PANL
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Posts Tagged ‘consumer spending’
All eyes over the past week have once again turned toward the job picture. A surprise? I think not for several reasons. The least of which was the weekly jobless claims number released on Thursday showed higher than expected initial claims. The real driver of renewed interest and pundit positioning on jobs is the monthly employment report for July, which arrives on Friday. This will be the latest score card for not only the health of the economy but also for how effective the current administration and its stimulative efforts have been.
Per Briefing.com, consensus expectations call for an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent in July, up slightly from 9.5 percent in June. The uptick reflects the shared view that the economy shed 70,000 jobs in July. Economists estimate that the private sector created 100,000 jobs but government employment fell 170,000, as more temporary census jobs disappeared.
The notion that private-sector jobs were created in July was backed up by the ADP employment report for July. That report showed the sixth straight month of job gains in the private sector. Thats the good news. The bad news is that the increase was only 42,000 jobs for July and the six-month average is 37,000. Both of those figures are a far cry from not only monthly job losses but also pale in comparison with new weekly unemployment claims.
Corporate earnings continued at a fast and furious pace this week, and we started to hear from a wider variety of companies.
Again, however, it was a mixed bag. Solid earnings and outlooks from the likes of Apple Inc., Qualcomm Inc., Morgan Stanley and eBay Inc. were offset by disappointing earnings, outlooks or both by Yum Brands, Starbucks, IBM, Goldman Sachs Group and others. This resulted in a topsy-turvy stock market, which should be expected. Not only is that one of the trials and tribulations of any earnings season, but it is amplified by where we are in the domestic economic recovery.
Or not.
While some may cut to the quick and ask, “How can he say that?” I would quickly point to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s semiannual report to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Wednesday. At the heart of Mr. Bernanke’s testimony, he stated that the Fed continues to forecast moderate growth for the domestic economy this year despite a “somewhat weaker outlook.”
Mr. Bernanke went on to pronounce the outlook as “unusually uncertain.”
With the stock market coming under increasing pressure as concerns about the viability of the economic recovery rise, several people have e-mailed me asking how they can protect themselves. The short answer is you can, and the more complicated answer is there are several ways to do so - some simpler ones and some that are more complex and better suited for more risk-tolerant investors.
Without question, there is growing concern that the economic recovery is losing steam. While we can point to several economic data streams over as many weeks, headlines on the Web, in magazines and in other publications are raising the issue if not stoking it. In the past week, some headlines have been: “U.S. Needs ‘Bright Star’ to Stimulate Economy,” “Federal Reserve weighs steps to offset slowdown in economic recovery,” “CBO tells Obama deficit panel that forecast remains bleak,” and “U.S. Jobs Picture Darkens.”
On Thursday, we received several new and unsettling updates, including one from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised concern that risks to the speed of the global recovery are mounting.
We are roughly one-third of the way through June and so far the major stock market indexes are all negative month to date despite the rally under way Thursday morning.
Taking a step back and examining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we find that both are down year to date and the same holds true for the Nasdaq Composite Index. The market direction coupled with recent surveys of consumers and businesses, not to mention eroding favor for the current administration, play into growing bearishness when it comes to the stock market.
Case in point: An Investors Intelligence poll, which surveys financial newsletter writers, showed an uptick in bearishness to 31.9% from 28.4% last week. That is the highest bearish level since July 2009.
Think 20/20’s Barbara Anderson issued an initial viewpoint on Big Lots (BIG), wherein she discusses the company’s merchandizing and real estate strategies which she believes will lead to sustainable EPS growth in a frugal economy.
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Contact customerservice@think2020research.com for a copy of this report.
The roller-coaster stock-market ride continued this past week amid worries over Europe and the euro early in the week followed renewed concern over the state of the economy asrevised gross domestic product (GDP) and weekly jobless-claims data became available.
Concerns over the ability of Europe to solve its debt-related problems and for the eurozone to eventually recover lifted when People’s Bank of China issued a statement dismissing “groundless” reports that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange was evaluating its investment in eurozone debt.
The People’s Bank of China went on to say it was committed to long-term investment in Europe. With People’s Bank of China holding more than $600 billion, the support for Europe lifted the euro and fueled a strong reversal in the stock-market indexes. As I discussed several weeks ago, volatility gives way to opportunity for prepared investors.